After two agonising near misses, our football props column is hoping it’s third time lucky on the cards on Saturday with a data-based play in Spain…
“Getafe’s ability to rile a referee has now seen them receive over 2.5 cards in 23 of their 31 La Liga games, including eight of their last nine.”
I suspect I’m preaching to the converted telling you about Getafe’s propensity for cards – they’ve long been one of Europe’s dirtiest teams.
The layers know this too and subsequently decent angles can be hard to find.
But there’s one I like the look of in this game, one based on data collected across almost a whole season.
Getafe’s ability to rile a referee has now seen them receive over 2.5 cards in 23 of their 31 La Liga games, including eight of their last nine, so that’s the foundation of a two-legged Bet Builder.
The other is to back a red card – Getafe have collected a league-high seven of those in 2021/22.
But it’s not just the Madrid-based side’s record of dismissals which is of interest here.
We’re also got the referee who has shown the most red cards in La Liga this season, Pablo Gonzalez Fuertes.
He’s sent someone off in nine of his 16 games this season (10 reds in total). They include Villarreal’s Juan Foyth. Throw in Getafe’s ill discipline and it’s not hard to see why another can be considered likely here.
A red card is rated a 21/10 chance, while a Getafe dismissal is at 4/1.
Having chased the big prices in the last two days and missed by a single card on both occasions, I’m going to take the safer option and add that the over 2.5 Getafe cards to produce a Bet Builder which pays just under 3/1.
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Source: Betfair Spanish La Liga