Everton can continue their revival by at least securing a point in a game where goals may just be at a premium so bet accordingly, says Jamie Pacheco…
Gordon’s priceless strike
The sight of Everton’s players celebrating that 1-0 win over Manchester United like they’d just won the FA Cup final was a rather strange one. Should they have been that ecstatic about securing three points at home against a Manchester United side who aren’t having the greatest of seasons themselves?
Well yes, actually, they could be forgiven for being over the moon.
Those three points could well end up being the difference between them going down and staying up.
Everyone at the club knows perfectly well what the consequences of being relegated are for a club like Everton and it’s just a case of putting those bad results and performances this season behind them and making sure they stay up. Then next season, they start all over again. Simple.
Assuming they do stay up, Anthony Gordon will have played his part. Not only did he grab that winner but he’s been their best player all season with gutsy, energy-filled performances with a touch of class about them.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is in a bit of a rut after returning from a long injury lay-off and could do with a goal.
Tired Foxes need to bounce back
It’s been an extremely eventful week and a half for Leicester.
They secured a good 2-1 win against an in-form Crystal Palace the weekend before last, a fine 2-1 win away at PSV to progress in the Europa Conference League, before then losing 2-1 at Newcastle, the winner coming with practically the last kick of the game.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, they’d actually been 1-0 up, Ademola Lookman rounding off a beautifully worked corner kick.
It’s worth pointing out that the likes of James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, who normally start, didn’t do so on Sunday because of fatigue.
In truth, the defeat won’t have too much of an effect on the Foxes’ season, with a European place next year out of the equation via the league.
But it’s still a game they probably shouldn’t have lost.
Everton are 2.427/5, Leicester 3.259/4 and the draw is 3.55/2.
These are prices, and the one on Everton in particular, that better reflect who needs the points more rather than the ability of the two sides.
The Foxes are after all, 12 points better. And they certainly haven’t disgraced themselves at Goodison Park over the years. In the last four here they drew two, won one and lost one.
In addition to the fact that Everton have more at stake, the only other reason for Everton’s shortish price is that they’ve won their last two at home, beating Newcastle and Manchester United by the same 1-0 scoreline.
But if it’s the Toffees you fancy, perhaps the 1-0 scoreline at 9.417/2 on the correct score market is a better alternative to the straight home win.
Of the three, the draw is the best pick, though.
Not just because it’s the biggest price but also because it’s the most common result between these two over the past four and the sort of result neither side would be too upset about.
The market is finding it hard to split over and under 2.5 goals; it’s pretty much evens the pair on the Exchange.
For Everton home games this season, 53% of them have stayed unders.
But what’s worth noting is the recent trend for unders, with all of the last four having less than three goals; in fact, they all had less than two goals. The first two of those were 1-0 defeats, the last two were 1-0 wins.
For Leicester, the percentage of unders games away falls to 33%, which is significant, but like Everton, there’s been a recent trend for low-scoring games. Four of the last six away from home stayed unders.
With Everton in particular looking to keep things tight rather than welcoming more open games, staying low on goals looks very much the way to go.
So far, we’ve had a decent-looking price on the draw and a strong preference for unders instead of overs.
So if the option to combine these two views is there, why not use it in the form of a Bet Builder?
Everton looked a little short for the straight win but with back-to-back wins at home and fresher legs than Leicester, I don’t think they’ll lose the game. You can cover both outcomes by getting with Everton/Draw on the Double Chance market at 1/3.
Here on the Sportsbook ‘unders’ is 17/20 rather than evens but that’s still just about good enough.
The double comes to 2.25 and looks the best option in a game that’s not so easy to call.