“Don’t bet when you are angry”, “Don’t chase losses” these are just two examples fielded by many well meaning (and bookies who have to say it) people in the safe gambling fraternity. Both of these statements, as well as many more are very true and very good advice. But what if you are not angry, losing, or the other myriad of reasons they are saying not to bet? Its your money its up to you. However, how many times have you put money on a football match and lost? 10, 15, more? and was the decision to put the bet on a gut feeling? Or perhaps you felt that the odds for a accumulator were boosted to an unbelievable price that was impossible not to take. The fact that you lost was probably because it was an emotional decision and not based on research or the bookie only stated facts that suggested that the bet would win. This post will focus on a specific bet, or trade if you like, which is “Lay the Draw”
Whether it is a score draw or a no-score draw, in the premiership and championship leagues from 2015-2020 the percentage of all games played in this period that ended in a draw was 26% ish. 1 in 4 games ended in a draw. This means that if we laid the draw in all games we would win 3 times out of 4 – 75% strike rate – how fantastic is that? The trouble is the odds for a draw are usually about 5/2 or 3.50 in new money. This means in money terms that in a perfect world laying every draw at odds of 3.5 for the minimum bet of £2.00 on Betfair we would only win £1.00 in every 4 games and that’s without taking the 5% commission they charge on winning trades taking that off we would be left with just 60p.
The beauty about laying the draw on an exchange is that when there is a goal scored the odds on the draw can raise significantly allowing us to back the draw after the goal is scored for a guaranteed profit.
This process can be automated with the use of specialised software such as BetAngel where a lay bet is placed at the start of a football match and when a goal is scored by either team an offset bet is placed providing us with a profit on the outcome whatever happens after that. The only trouble with this strategy is when no goals are scored and the percentage of no-score draws is about 11%.
I am now coming to the crutch of the post
Research is key to all betting and sticking to certain criteria is paramount to success. To this end I have produced a flow chart, which is still in its development stage, to eliminate the emotional or “gut” decisions made in this particular strategy.
The stats I am using come free from the Soccerstats website (www.soccerstats.com) and focus on previous results and the over/under stats
A flow chart is an ideal tool to provide black and white decision making choices when looking at this type of trade or bet and is available free to download below.
It is simple to use and as I have said previously it is still in need of tweeking but the trades it has identified for tonights games (23rd Feb 22) are listed below.
I should note that LTD means “Lay the Draw” but using the software mentioned and the specific automation file provided in the following link on the betangel forum
Burnley v Tottenham – No Bet
Watford v Crystal Palace – No Bet
Liverpool v Leeds – LTD
Derby Co v Millwall – No Bet
Fulham v Peterboro – LTD
Huddersfield v Cardiff No Bet
QPR v Blackpool – LTD
Sheffield Utd v Blackburn – No Bet
Stoke v Luton – No Bet
Italy Serie B
Benevento v Como – LTD
Brescia v Ascoli – LTD
Crotone v Cosenza – No Bet
Frosinone v Reggina – No Bet
Lecce v Cittadella – No Bet
Dundee v St Mirren – No Bet